America's Old Flame Still Burns

Carney reminds Americans what we once had and could have again. And that Canada is fine and ready to see other people.

Source: CBC.ca

The second Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney today has set off a flurry of speculation and expectation-spin about what Carney can achieve and how he will manage his relationship with Trump and, beyond that, Canada’s relationship with the United States.

I think that Carney has settled on a strategy that he revealed in New York in September.

Mark Carney’s September 22 speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, where he was attending the United Nations General Assembly for his first time as prime minister, revealed a subtle shift in tone in response to the Trump administration. The above link includes a transcript, but I recommend watching the brief opening remarks (what the occasion called for, but not a proper endowed lecture by the usual standard) and the interaction with the audience if you have time.

Since US President Donald Trump took office back in 2016, he has been caustic about Canada, but during the first term this seemed to reflect his gradual disenchantment with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

In Trump’s second term, he has treated Canada like a man suing his longtime partner for divorce, alternating between a litany of past wrongs and suggestions of greater intimacy in the future (Become the 51st state!)

Canadian responses have run the gamut from aggrieved spouse to bitter ex, insisting on a desire to move on while obsessing over the injustice of it all.

But Carney’s latest pivot resembles the mature approach of an old flame eschewing bitterness for a charming and wistful presentation that self-deprecatory rather than accusatory. It is an approach that seeks to remind a former partner why they fell in love once and might do so again.

Carney certainly charmed his audience in New York. Not since Brian Mulroney has Canada deployed smiling Irish eyes at Americans to such effect. It was a confident, good-humored performance.

It also showed that Carney knew what makes Canada an attractive partner: its Arctic, critical minerals, energy, advanced manufacturing, finance, an ongoing commitment to sustainability, the rule of law and a rules-based international order. As Carney noted, European and Indo-Pacific countries are willing to work with Middle Power Canada to strengthen world order.

This is not about making the United States jealous. As Carney noted in New York, the United States is Canada’s partner of choice and for life. But the two countries have some issues to work out. Some things, once said, cannot be unsaid. Trust, once squandered, takes time to build back. But Canada is prepared to do the hard work necessary to rekindle the relationship - or move on, reluctantly, if the United States will not reciprocate.

To me, this is the way to understand the meeting today. Carney’s Canada has addressed longstanding US complaints without preconditions: it will spend two percent of GDP on national defense, it is investing significantly in border security and efforts to halt fentanyl trafficking, it has withdrawn a planned Digital Services Tax. Canada is entering the review of the USMCA without any reservations, signaling an openness to renegotiate as needed to address US concerns. Carney has proposed a new Security and Economic Partnership with the United States and has shown urgency by sending senior cabinet officials to keep talks going. And now, Carney is coming to Washington himself without a deal in the offing.

Yet the United States has yet to offer Carney any encouragement. There are 50 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, 10 percent tariffs on energy, tariffs on softwood lumber and now this week additional tariffs on light- and heavy-duty trucks. Even the 51st state taunt is back.

The mood in Canada is increasingly pessimistic about the bilateral relationship, as Francis Wilkinson captures well in a new piece for Bloomberg. Carney leads a minority government. His strategy to keep talking to the United States to try to get the relationship back on track has yet to bear fruit. Canadian voters could yet decide that they need a hard-nosed divorce lawyer as prime minister.

Like all such rough patches in relationships, the gesture Trump needs to give is not necessarily a trade concession. A small peace offering, if followed up by serious talk and action can help both sides to move past this moment. Carney has shown that Canada still has feelings for the United States. The old flame still flickers across the border.

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Editor’s note: I have renamed this Substack the US Canada Observer. The former name, US Canada Eye, was a dud, I admit!